Blueprint
Scaling California’s Heat Pump Market: The Path to Six Million
The California Heat Pump Partnership (CAHPP) released the first large-scale plan developed through a public-private partnership to rapidly scale heat pump adoption in California, with a clear roadmap to achieve these goals through cross-sector collaboration and strategic partnerships.
This blueprint outlines near-term strategies to address technical, market, and policy barriers to heat pump adoption and advance the state’s goal to install six million electric heat pumps by 2030—reducing greenhouse gas emissions from California’s buildings to support the state’s ultimate goal of achieving carbon net neutrality by 2045.
Strong Momentum, but a Gap Remains
California has committed to a clean energy future for all through groundbreaking building decarbonization efforts, including Governor Newsom’s goal to install 6 million heat pumps throughout the state by 2030.
As of the end of 2024, 1.9 million heat pump units were installed statewide. At the current rate of heat pump adoption, the state is projected to reach only 4 million heat pumps by 2030, falling 2 million units short of the state’s 6 million heat pump target.
To address this gap, the state convened the nation’s first Public-Private partnership to accelerate heat pump deployment, the California Heat Pump Partnership (CAHPP). The CAHPP brings together state policy leaders, manufacturers, retailers, distributors, utilities, and other key market stakeholders to expand California’s heat pump market and ensure the state meets its 2030 target.
Major Barriers to Mass Heat Pump Adoption
The CAHPP identified several barriers to scaling adoption and meeting the state’s goal.
Relative Costs
Upfront installation costs
Operating costs
Transaction Friction
Complex incentive program design
Lack of consistent incentive funding
Complicated permitting processes
Market Maturity
Low customer awareness and demand
Contractor reluctance to prioritize heat pumps
Shortage of trained installers
Market Visibility
Limited data availability to inform policy and market efforts
Strategies to Reach Six Million Heat Pumps
The CAHPP has identified these near-term actions to address major barriers and catalyze growth.
Improve Customer Economics
1
Support long-term, stable incentives
2
Continue supporting electrification-friendly rates
3
Direct 50 percent of program funds to low-income and disadvantaged communities
4
Expand low-cost appliance financing options
5
Target near-term, high value opportunities for appliance retrofits
Streamline Sales and Installation Processes
6
Modernize local heat pump permitting processes
7
Simplify incentive program design
Accelerate Market Adoption
8
Supercharge heat pump marketing efforts
9
Develop a comprehensive workforce engagement campaign
10
Launch a Heat Pump Week
Increase Market Visibility
11
Collect and leverage heat pump adoption data
Beyond Six Million: Supporting Long-Term Decarbonization
Looking ahead, the CAHPP will continue to align strategies with the state’s long-term decarbonization objectives including those related to equity and affordability, load flexibility and grid planning, technology innovation, and targeted electrification. Through these coordinated efforts, the CAHPP will support meeting the six million heat pump target and lay the groundwork for a carbon-neutral future in California.
